US policy rate
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The interest rate the US central bank (the Fed) steers. Higher rates make borrowing dearer and usually weigh on share prices - especially of fast-growing companies whose profits lie far in the future.
Macro economy
The big picture behind every share price: what central banks do with interest rates, how fast prices rise, whether the economy grows and how nervous the market is - each number explained in plain English, with what it usually means for stocks.
Why the economy matters for your stocks
A company's profits rise and fall with its customers' spending, and its share price also depends on interest rates: when safe government bonds pay more, investors demand more from shares. You do not need to predict the economy - but knowing where it stands helps you understand why the whole market moves.
The phase of the economy
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What the four phases mean
- Expansion: The economy grows and jobs are steady - usually good for company profits.
- Slowdown: Growth is cooling or warning lights are on - profits can come under pressure.
- Recession: The economy shrinks or unemployment jumps - profits usually fall, and so do many share prices.
- Recovery: The economy is climbing out of a downturn - shares often move ahead of the figures.
The phase follows simple, published rules on US growth, unemployment and the yield curve. It describes the latest figures - it is not a forecast.
The key numbers
Euro area policy rate
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The European Central Bank's deposit rate - the same lever for the euro area.
US inflation
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How much consumer prices rose over the past 12 months. Central banks aim for about 2%; well above that, they tend to keep rates high.
Euro area inflation
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The same measure for the euro area (HICP).
US 10-year bond yield
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What the US government pays to borrow for 10 years - the "risk-free" return shares compete with. A higher yield makes future profits worth less today.
US yield curve (10y minus 2y)
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Long-term minus short-term rates. Normally positive; below zero ("inverted") it has come before most US recessions - but with a long and varying delay.
US unemployment
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The share of the workforce without a job. A quick rise of half a point or more from its low (the Sahm rule) has marked the start of every US recession since 1970.
US economic growth
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How fast the economy grew in the latest quarter, after inflation, at a yearly pace. Below zero two quarters in a row is a common definition of a recession.
Market fear (VIX)
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How big moves investors expect in US shares over the next month. About 12-20 is calm; above 30 is fear.
The market's mood in the news
Every news article about the companies on Ticker Picker is read by an AI model. The news cycle score sums up each day: +100 if every article was positive about its company, -100 if every one was negative, weighted by how factual each article is and how many people its outlet reaches. The score for the market as a whole is built from what the articles say about the market (the market mood below); on days without such labels it falls back to how positive the articles were about their companies. The market mood counts the animal labels the model gives an article for what it says about the market as a whole (Bull = rising prices, Bear = falling, Hawk = higher rates, Dove = lower rates, Owl = neutral).
News cycle score - the market
Market mood - last 7 and 30 days
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Sources: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (rates, inflation, yields, unemployment, growth, VIX); the news scores come from Ticker Picker's AI reading of company news and can be wrong. This content is not investment advice.